As if Nigeria hasn’t seen enough violence lately, experts
are warning that elections being held next month may trigger even more
bloodshed.
The country, which is divided nearly equally between Muslims
and Christians, will head to the polls on Feb. 14 to choose from a number of
presidential candidates. The main contenders, however, are Christian incumbent
Goodluck Jonathan and Muslim opponent Mohammadu Buhari.
But depending on the results, Feb. 14 could turn into “a
Valentine’s Day massacre for the poor Christians in northern Nigeria,” said
human rights lawyer Emmanuel Ogebe during his testimony Tuesday to the House
Foreign Affairs subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights and
International Organizations.
“The circumstances that surrounded the 2011 elections are
quite similar to the political atmosphere in the run-up to the 2015 elections,”
Ogebe explained. “Akin to the 2011 elections, the 2015 elections appear to be
polarizing into essentially yet another Christian versus Muslim contest.”
In 2011, Jonathan’s victory over Buhari triggered widespread
violence against Christians in the Muslim north.
When Muslim challenger General Mohammadu Buhari lost the
2011 presidential election, violence erupted in 12 northern states where he
commands a large following from the Muslim population. The final toll for the
Christian community was staggering. In a 48-hour period, over 700 church
buildings were burned, hundreds of Christians were confirmed killed, more than
3,100 Christian-operated businesses, schools, and shops were burned, and over
3,400 Christian homes were destroyed. Thousands of Muslim youths in 12 states
with machetes, knives, matches and gasoline carried out this pogrom.”
Leading up to the 2015 general election, Nigeria is dealing
with a number of issues that are heightening tensions, including, but not
limited to: religious considerations of the candidates, the continued Boko
Haram insurgency, fear of disenfranchisement among a large segment of the
voting population, and the staggering number of internally displaced persons.
Because of these factors, which inhibit free and fair
elections, lawyer Jadegoke Badejo said at the hearing that the “fear of
political explosion is real.”
In the past, such Gathering Clouds have fizzled away with
deft political maneuvering and appeasement of the contending forces,” Badejo
continued. “It seems that this time around, the forces of inefficiency,
regional and religious sentiments, systemic and structural defects in the
political configuration and the endemic corruption have finally consumed the
country beyond redemption.”
Secretary of State John Kerry visited Lagos last week to
meet with Jonathan and Buhari, both of whom gave their assurances that they’d
urge their supporters to accept the election’s results and abstain from
post-election violence.
If the elections are democratic and peaceful, Kerry promised
the U.S. would do more to help in the fight against Boko Haram.
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